Middle School and High School Indicators that Predict Postsecondary Readiness and Success

 

A new report from REL Southwest examines the extent to which middle school and high school indicators of college and career readiness predict a postsecondary readiness outcome (an ACT score of 19 or higher) and success outcomes (college enrollment within eight years of beginning grade 6, and college persistence, or enrollment in more than one term within eight years of beginning grade 6). The indicators are aligned to the Arkansas Every Student Succeeds Act plan. Key findings include the following: Middle school indicators accurately predicted the readiness and success outcomes for 70–82 percent of students, and high school indicators accurately predicted the outcomes for 75–83 percent of students, after student background characteristics were controlled for. Major middle school predictors for at least two of the three outcomes included proficiency in English language arts and math, not being chronically absent, no expulsions, and no suspensions. Major high school predictors for at least two of the three outcomes included attaining a grade point average of 2.8 or higher, enrolling in at least one advanced course, and not being chronically absent or expelled. The findings can help state and local education agencies identify students who are on track and those who are off track to attain postsecondary readiness and success in middle school and high school. Arkansas has identified college and career readiness indicators for schools that can be used to monitor students' performance and to improve their postsecondary readiness and success. Using two cohorts of grade 6 students, this study examined the extent to which Arkansas’s middle school and high school indicators of postsecondary readiness predict a student postsecondary readiness outcome (an ACT score of 19 or higher) and success outcomes (enrolled in college for at least one term within eight years of beginning grade 6, and persisted in college by enrolling for more than one term within eight years of beginning grade 6). The study estimated the accuracy and strength of the middle school and high school indicators for predicting the outcomes. While fewer than half of students met the Arkansas postsecondary readiness standard, more than half enrolled in college and about half persisted for more than one term within eight years of beginning grade 6. Middle school and high school indicators, when combined with student background characteristics, predicted readiness and success outcomes with greater accuracy than did student background characteristics alone. Middle school indicators that were major predictors for at least two of the three outcomes examined included proficiency in English language arts and math, regular school attendance, no suspensions, and no expulsions. High school indictors that were major predictors for at least two of the outcomes included grade point average, enrollment in an advanced course, regular school attendance, and no expulsions.