Rising Grades and College Completion Rates

College completion rates declined from the 1970s to the 1990s. This study documents that this trend has reversed--since the 1990s, college completion rates have increased and investigates the reasons for the increase in college graduation rates. 

Collectively, student characteristics, institutional resources, and institution attended do not explain much of the change. However,  grade inflation can explain much of the change in graduation rates. GPA is a strong predictor of graduation rates. GPAs have been rising since the 1990s. Increases in college GPAs cannot be explained by student demographics, preparation, and school factors.