Student's high school GPA determines chances of a college degree. .

A new book from Harry Holzer and Sandy Baum, Making College Work: Pathways to Success for Disadvantaged Students, vividly demonstrates how important a student's high school GPA is in obtaining a college degree.

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Here’s a simplified version of the Holzer-Baum chart* showing students achieving a Bachelor’s degree:


Three key messages here:

• Prior academic achievement matters a lot for the chances of getting a BA. More than half (55%) of even the poorest kids (family income of less than $32,000) who have a GPA of 3.5 or more get a BA. Conversely, only 29% of the most affluent students ($92,00 or more) with a sub-3.0 GPA do so.
• But family background still counts too, even within these three GPA buckets: 29% is  a lot higher than 13% (for the poorest kids with low GPAs).
• Family income seems to matter most in the middle of the academic distribution. As Baum and Holzer write: “Among those in the 3.0 to 3.4 GPA category, the gap in bachelor’s degree attainment between the highest- and lowest-income dependent students is a stunning 37 percentage points (56 and 19 percent, respectively).”