NCTQ Questions “National Teacher Shortage” Narrative

Complete report

 

There has been lots of discussion recently about a new national teacher shortage.

Here is what the available data do show: There is not a national teacher shortage across the U.S. any more than there is one labor market for teachers in the United States.  In fact, it is hard to argue that there even 50 labor markets. What we have are unfilled teacher jobs in some subject fields and in some locations. For instance, there are vacancies in Detroit , Oklahoma , and parts of California .  But this is not a national trend; rather it is the result of local conditions, issues, and choices. For instance, in California, the number of available teachers statewide exceeds the number of projected openings, but these teachers for hire are not  always in the right fields or communities, and one of the most affected shortage areas — the Bay Area — has the highest cost of living in the United States.

The US Department of Education reports shortages on the state level with nearly all states citing vacancies in math, science, and special education. But there are many other teaching fields where only a  few states have unfilled jobs, such as general elementary education (13 states). Al so, the perception of widespread shortages is in part an artifact of how this report presents the data. When a state lists a  subject area as having insufficient teachers, it does not say what percentage of schools have unfilled  openings in that area.

There are additional data that contradict the teacher shortage narrative.  For instance: ● Our public school teacher workforce is growing.  Newest NCES data  (https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017072.pdf )  estimate that there were over 3.8 million public  school teachers in the 2015 - 16 school year  - an increase of 13 percent (about 400,000) in four years.

Meanwhile, NCES projected that the number of public school students would increase by less  than 2 percent from 2011 until 2015.  (https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/ tables/dt15_208.20.asp ). 

Instead of a shrinking teacher workforce, data show an expanding one that far outpaces student increases. More research is needed to interpret this finding  - and we can expect more detailed data from NCES  this winter. 

Nationally, far more teachers graduate than can be hired. America’s teacher training programs prepare too many teachers in fields with a surplus of teachers, such as elementary education, while training too few in the fields where schools most desperately need teachers such as math, science, and ESL. 

Research compiled by the Calder Center  (http://www.caldercenter.org/missing-elements - discussion-teacher-shortages)  shows that “the demand for STEM and SPED teachers has been far greater than the demand for Elementary, English, and Social Studies for several decades.” 

Teachers in math and science fields can make substantially more money in non - teaching jobs.  The average full - time teacher salary in public schools in 2015 was $58,064. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_211.50.asp 

By contrast, according to  Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce, workers who majored in computers,  statistics, and mathematics had an average salary of $76,000 in 2015 while those who majored  in the physical sciences averaged $65,000. So it is not surprising that schools have trouble  finding and retaining teachers with these highly - paid specialties.  (https://cew-7632.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/The-Economic-Value-of-College-Majors-Full-Report-web-FINAL.pdf )  ) 

Teacher shortages are largely a product of local conditions, requiring local solutions. For example, until the state of Oklahoma pays its teachers more, it will struggle to fill positions, but solving its probl em  does not require us to raise teacher pay everywhere. Detroit suffers because its schools are so challenging. No solution will solve its problem until we address these local environments. Nationwide 50 percent of  candidates do not end up in teaching jobs.