Tuesday, November 15, 2016

25 percent of California teachers who were teaching in the state in 2013/14 will retire by 2023/24

A new report updates a previously published report by projecting California teacher retirements, at the state and county level and by specific teaching fields, during the period from 2014/15 through 2023/24. Teacher retirement projections are based on the current ages of teachers and historical age- and county-specific retirement rates.

The study finds that 25 percent of all of California's 2013/14 teachers are projected to retire by 2024. Great variation exists across counties in the proportion of the 2013/14 teacher workforce projected to retire by 2024, with a low of 19 percent projected to retire in Sutter County to a high of 61 percent in Sierra County.

This suggests that counties across the state will confront very different staffing situations over the 10-year period due to projected retirements. In terms of the geographic distribution, the more rural counties that are projected to have higher retirement rates tend to lie along the state's northern coast and along the state's northern and eastern borders; lower proportions of retirements are projected in and around the metropolitan areas of San Francisco, Sacramento, Orange County/Los Angeles, and Fresno.

This report also projects teacher retirements within specific teaching fields, including math, science, English language arts, and special education. Results from these field-specific projections show that, at the state level, from 22 to 26 percent of teachers in these various fields are projected to retire over the 10-year period. However, within these particular fields there is wide variation across counties in projected retirements. With research showing that graduates of teacher preparation programs tend to prefer living close to their hometowns, coupled with a projected statewide shortage of college-educated adults through at least 2025, careful local workforce planning will be essential, particularly in counties projected to experience high proportions of teacher retirements.

projects similar statewide retirement rates (23–26 percent) for math, science, English language arts, history, special education, and elementary school teachers. However, projected teacher retirements vary considerably across California's 58 counties. Higher retirement rates are projected for rural counties, especially along the state's northern coast and near the state's northern and eastern borders, and lower retirement rates are projected in and around metropolitan areas such as San Francisco, Sacramento, Orange County/Los Angeles, and Fresno. Education officials in other states could apply this study's methodology to project teacher retirements in their state or district.

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