Attendance and GPA in Grades 8 and 9 are Significantly Associated with Graduating On Time

A  study of graduation outcomes confirms findings from research in other settings that attendance and grade point average (GPA) in grades 8 and 9 are significantly associated with graduating on time. The study also shows that race/ethnicity and achievement on standardized tests were less predictive of graduating on time after accounting for other factors. When the influence of students' demographic, attendance, achievement, and behavioral characteristics and differences in the schools that they attended were considered at the same time, only gender, English learner student status, and attendance and GPA in grades 8 and 9 were associated with graduation outcomes.

The authors conclude that practitioners and policymakers concerned with early identification of students at-risk of not graduating on time could consider these early warning indicators: grade 8 attendance rates below 80 percent; grade 8 GPA of less than 2.0; grade 9 attendance rates below 80 percent, and grade 9 GPA of less than 2.0.