Children
who are older when they start kindergarten do well in the short term,
academically and socially. But as teenagers, these old-for-grade students are
more likely to drop out and commit serious crimes, says new research from Duke
University.
The
negative outcomes are significantly more likely for children from disadvantaged
backgrounds.
"This
research provides the first compelling evidence of a causal link between
dropout and crime. It supports the view that crime outcomes should be
considered in evaluating school reforms," said lead author Philip J. Cook,
a professor in Duke's Sanford School of Public Policy.
"Dropouts
are greatly over-represented in prison, so we know there is a strong
association between dropping out and crime," Cook said. "But to
establish causation requires an experiment. My analysis takes advantage of
nature's experiment associated with birth date."
The
research report, by Cook and Songman Kang of Hanyang University in Seoul, South
Korea, is forthcoming in the American Economic Journal-Applied Economics.
The
study compared North Carolina public school students born 60 days before and 60
days after the school cutoff date. At the time of the study, North Carolina
children had to turn 5 by Oct. 16 to be eligible to enter kindergarten that
year.
Previous
studies have established that children born just after the school-entry cutoff
date, who enter school "old for grade," perform better academically
than their younger classmates. As a result, a growing number of parents have
delayed enrolling their children whose birthdays fall shortly before the cutoff
date, seeking to gain academic and social advantages. "Academic
redshirting" is more common for boys than girls and for whites than African
Americans.
In
addition to performing better academically, Cook's study found old-for-grade
students were one-third less likely to engage in delinquent behavior while
still in school.
"Up
until the 16th birthday, it is all positive," Cook said. "They are
doing better, relative to their classmates, by every measure. It makes sense,
because they are more mature."
But
after age 16, the picture shifts, Cook's research shows. The old-for-grade
students are more likely to drop out and be convicted of a felony before age 20.
The explanation for the seeming contradiction lies in the age at which students
may legally withdraw from school, which is 16 in North Carolina.
"If
they were born before the cutoff date, they have just 19 months between their
16th birthday and graduation to be tempted to drop out," Cook said.
"If they were born just after and enter school later, they have 31 months,
and for some of them, it is an irresistible temptation."
"It's
human nature," Cook said. "For a lot of adolescents, high school is a
drag."
Among
the old-for-grade students, the likelihood of dropping out and being convicted
of a serious crime is 3.4 times greater for those born to an unwed mother and
2.7 times greater for those whose mothers were high school dropouts.
"Should
you redshirt your kid? Well, on the one hand, he'll do better while he's in
school and is less likely to become delinquent. On the other hand, he'll be
more likely to drop out before graduation, and bad things may follow
that," Cook said.
Policymakers
should take notice, Cook added.
"Even
something as crude as a regulation that requires a kid stay in school to a
fixed age, whether he wants to or not, has a considerable effect on criminal
activity," Cook said.
Rather
than tie legal withdrawal to age, states might consider requiring completion of
a certain grade or a specified number of years in school, he said.
"People
say there is no point keeping a kid in school who doesn't want to be there
because he won't learn anything and he'll be disruptive," Cook said.
"My findings suggest that intuitive argument is not entirely
correct."
"Even
students who would rather drop out can benefit from staying in school when they
are required to do so. Otherwise they are prime candidates for recruitment into
a life of crime," Cook said.
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