Can student reading growth during the year be used to predict scores on an end-of-year standardized state assessment?

REL Southeast at Florida State University examined this question using archival data from nearly 800,000 students in grades 3-10 in Florida. The study compared student growth in reading comprehension over the school year to scores on the end-of-year Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT).

Using archival data for 2009/10, the study analyzes a stratified random sample of 800,000 Florida students in grades 3-10: their fall, winter, and spring reading comprehension scores on the Florida Assessments for Instruction in Reading (FAIR) and their reading comprehension scores on the FCAT. This study examines the relationship among descriptive measures of growth and inferential measures for students in grades 3-10 and considers how well such measures statistically explain differences in end-of-year reading comprehension after controlling for student performance on a mid-year status assessment. Student differences in reading comprehension performance were explained by the four growth estimates (measured by the coefficient of determination, R2) and differed by status variable used (performance on the fall, winter, or spring FAIR reading comprehension screen).